$875 billion of commercial mortgages come due in 2026

About $875 billion of US commercial and multifamily mortgage debt matures in 2026 — roughly 17.5% of the $5 trillion outstanding, per Mortgage Bankers Association figures cited by Origin Investments. A large share was originated between 2019 and 2021, at rates that no longer exist.

If one of those loans is yours, the problem usually is not finding a lender. It is arithmetic.

Why the coverage test decides it

A loan written at 3.5% supported a payment your building's income cleared easily. The same balance at today's rates carries a payment 40–50% higher, and every lender sizes the new loan to a debt service coverage test on current income — typically requiring income around 1.2 times the new payment. If rents have not risen enough since the loan was written, the building qualifies for a smaller loan than the one it is paying off. That difference has to come from somewhere: cash in, a rate buydown, a second-position piece, or a bridge.

The four honest outcomes

First: the clean refinance — income grew, the numbers clear, a community bank writes it. This is most deals, and in Massachusetts the registry record shows exactly which banks are writing them. Second: the partial — the bank refinances most of the balance and the owner brings a check or accepts mezzanine or preferred equity behind the senior. Third: the bridge — a two-to-three-year private loan at 65–70% of value buys time for income to catch up before a permanent loan. Alternative lenders wrote 40% of non-agency closings in late 2025 largely on the back of exactly this trade. Fourth: the sale — when none of the above pencils, better discovered eight months early than eight weeks.

The only real advice

Start before the calendar forces you. A maturity handled twelve months out has all four options open; one handled ninety days out often has one. Pull the loan documents, check the actual maturity and any extension tests, run today's income against today's rates, and price both markets — bank and private — before choosing either.

We arrange commercial financing in Massachusetts and track which lenders, bank and non-bank, are actually closing. If your maturity is inside eighteen months, send the deal and we will run the numbers with you.

Source: Origin Investments, How Private Lenders Are Reshaping Commercial Real Estate Financing (MBA and CBRE data cited therein).